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SEC Filings

AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. filed this Form 10-Q on 11/06/2014
Entire Document

Our profitability and the value of our investment portfolio (including derivatives used for hedging purposes) may be adversely affected during any period as a result of changing interest rates including changes in the forward yield curve.
Primary measures of an instrument's price sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations are its duration and convexity. The duration of our investment portfolio changes with interest rates and tends to increase when rates rise and decrease when rates fall. This "negative convexity" generally increases the interest rate exposure of our investment portfolio in excess of what is measured by duration alone.
We estimate the duration and convexity of our portfolio using both a third-party risk management system and market data. We review the duration estimates from the third-party model and may make adjustments based on our Manager's judgment. These adjustments are intended to, in our Manager's opinion, better reflect the unique characteristics and market trading conventions associated with certain types of securities.
Further, since we do not control the other agency mortgage REITs in which we invest in, we have limited transparency into their underlying investment and hedge portfolios. Therefore, our Manager must make certain assumptions to estimate the duration and convexity of the underlying portfolios and their sensitivity to changes in interest rates. Such estimates do not include the potential impact of other factors which may affect the fair value of our investments in other REITs, such as stock market volatility. Accordingly, actual results could differ from our estimates.
The table below quantifies the estimated changes in net interest income (including periodic interest costs on our interest rate swaps) and the estimated changes in the fair value of our investment portfolio (including derivatives and other securities used for hedging purposes) and in our net asset value as of September 30, 2014 and December 31, 2013 should interest rates go up or down by 50 and 100 basis points, assuming instantaneous parallel shifts in the yield curve and including the impact of both duration and convexity.
All changes in income and value in the table below are measured as percentage changes from the projected net interest income, investment portfolio value and net asset value at the base interest rate scenario. The base interest rate scenario assumes interest rates and prepayment projections as of September 30, 2014 and December 31, 2013. We apply a floor of 0% for the down rate scenarios on our interest bearing liabilities and the variable leg of our interest rate swaps, such that any hypothetical interest rate decrease would have a limited positive impact on our funding costs beyond a certain level.
Actual results could differ materially from estimates, especially in the current market environment. To the extent that these estimates or other assumptions do not hold true, which is likely in a period of high price volatility, actual results will likely differ materially from projections and could be larger or smaller than the estimates in the table below. Moreover, if different models were employed in the analysis, materially different projections could result. Lastly, while the table below reflects the estimated impact of interest rate increases and decreases on a static portfolio, we may from time to time sell any of our agency securities as a part of our overall management of our investment portfolio. 
Interest Rate Sensitivity 1
Percentage Change in Projected
Change in Interest Rate
Net Interest Income 2
Portfolio Market
 Value 3,4
Net Asset Value 3,5
As of September 30, 2014
-100 Basis Points
-50 Basis Points
+50 Basis Points
+100 Basis Points
As of December 31, 2013
-100 Basis Points
-50 Basis Points
+50 Basis Points
+100 Basis Points
Interest rate sensitivity is derived from models that are dependent on inputs and assumptions provided by third parties as well as by our Manager, assumes there are no changes in mortgage spreads and assumes a static portfolio. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates.


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