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SEC Filings

AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. filed this Form 10-Q on 08/05/2016
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manage a wide range of risks including financing, interest rate, prepayment and extension risks;
preserve our net book value;
provide regular monthly distributions to our stockholders;
continue to qualify as a REIT; and
remain exempt from the requirements of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the "Investment Company Act").
The size and composition of our investment portfolio depends on investment strategies we implement, the availability of investment capital and overall market conditions, including the availability of attractively priced investments and suitable financing to appropriately leverage our investment portfolio. Market conditions are influenced by, among other things, current levels of and expectations for future levels of interest rates, mortgage prepayments, market liquidity, housing prices, unemployment rates, general economic conditions, government participation in the mortgage market and evolving regulations or legal settlements that impact servicing practices or other mortgage related activities.
Our Risk Management Strategy
We use a variety of strategies to hedge a portion of our exposure to market risks, including interest rate, prepayment, extension and liquidity risk. Our investment and risk management strategy incorporates the cost of hedging transactions and our intention to qualify as a REIT. Consequently, while we use interest rate swaps and other hedges to attempt to protect our net book value against moves in interest rates, we may not hedge certain interest rate, prepayment or extension risks if we believe that bearing such risks enhances our return relative to our risk/return profile, or the hedging transaction would negatively impact our REIT status.
The risk management actions we take may lower our earnings and dividends in the short term to further our objective of maintaining attractive levels of earnings and dividends over the long term. In addition, some of our hedges are intended to provide protection against larger rate moves and as a result may be relatively ineffective for smaller changes in interest rates. There can also be no certainty that our projections of our exposures to interest rates, prepayments, extension or other risks will be accurate or that our hedging activities will be effective and, therefore, actual results could differ materially. Furthermore, since our hedging strategies are generally not designed to protect our net book value from spread risk, wider spreads between the market yield on our investment securities and benchmark interests underlying our interest rate hedges will typically cause our net book value to decline and can occur independent of changes in benchmark interest rates. For further discussion of our market risks and risk management strategy, please refer to "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" under Item 3 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
Trends and Recent Market Impacts
First and Second Quarter Highlights
Following the Federal Reserve's (the "Fed") first Federal Funds Rate increase in nearly ten years in December 2015, interest rates across much of the yield curve fell materially during the first quarter of 2016, as concerns regarding global economic weakness dampened the market’s expectations with respect to U.S. economic growth, inflation and the pace of monetary policy normalization. Consistent with this weaker outlook, at its March meeting, the Fed significantly reduced its expectations for future short term interest rate increases and explicitly acknowledged the potential downside risk to the U.S. economy associated with the deteriorating global landscape. The weaker global growth outlook also led to significant additional easing measures by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, with the latter instituting negative interest rates for the first time during the first quarter.
Early in the second quarter as the U.S. economy showed signs of improvement, communication from the Fed became decidedly more "hawkish" with respect to its stance on monetary policy. The Fed’s more upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy led the market to believe there was an increased likelihood of additional Fed rate hikes, thus causing interest rates more broadly to rise and retrace some of the rate decline experienced in the first quarter. This trend was subsequently reversed later in the second quarter, as the combination of weaker economic data in the U.S. and the surprise vote by the United Kingdom to withdraw from the European Union drove interest rates to historically low levels.
Against this backdrop, the 10 year swap rate in the U.S. declined significantly during the first two quarters of the year, falling 55 basis points during the first quarter to 1.64% as of March 31, 2016 and another 26 basis point during the second quarter, ending the second quarter near its all-time record low at 1.38% as of June 30, 2016. The 10 year U.S. Treasury rate experienced a similar decline, falling a total of 78 basis points during the first two quarters of the year to 1.49% as of June 30, 2016.


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